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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-08-20T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14113/-1
CME Note: The CME is associated with a filament eruption occurring around 2018-08-20T18:00Z at N40W05 in SDO 193.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-25T06:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -169
Dst min. time: 2018-08-26T07:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-08-24T21:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2018-08-21T10:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 450km/s (approx).
Longitude (deg): W09
Latitude (deg): W05
Half-angular width (deg): 24

Notes: Full halo from broadscale coronal disturbance inc. filament. Decided halo by running full-colour SOHO COR imagery and seeing 90deg trajectory from STEREO A COR. Hard to analyse as barely visible in SOHO and STEREO A data restarts after a lengthy data gap only after the CME has progressed past the edge of the frame. High confidence on direction (location) and therefore Earthbound component, low on speed. CME may contain magnetic cloud behind, with storming most likely post-shock. 
Space weather advisor: Mark Seltzer

Lead Time: 85.83 hour(s)
Difference: 9.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2018-08-21T16:10Z

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